3.0 KiB
Economic Model
Status: Structural draft — pending real data
Horizon: Business-model structure (NOW for shape; numbers remain PLACEHOLDER until Layer 3 on a real client)
Purpose
This document connects the Value Creation Model, Client Lifecycle, and Go-to-Market Strategy into a unit-economics framework, and begins as a placeholder structure pending real client data and delivery-cost validation.
Cost Side: Delivery Cost Floor
Two distinct placeholders, not one:
Early-Stage Cost Floor (V1 hand-reviewed cohort)
[PLACEHOLDER] — note that the prior estimate of ~$150-200/month predates Local Competitive Awareness becoming mandatory at every tier, and predates any real data on human-review time under the approval gate. Flag as needing recheck once the first proof-of-concept engagement completes.
At-Scale Cost Floor (post-graduation-threshold)
[PLACEHOLDER] — explicitly a future-state projection for once specific task types clear the ≥100 zero-error graduation threshold (see docs/operations/task-reliability-ledger.md). State clearly this is not a V1 number and must not be used for V1 pricing decisions.
Value Side: Recoverable Client LTV
[PLACEHOLDER — AWAITING REAL CLIENT DATA]
List as pending data points:
- Average ticket per visit
- Average visit/repeat frequency
- Estimated client lifetime (months/years)
- Estimated average client LTV (derived from above)
- Monthly new clients
- Percentage of new clients attributing discovery to online search/AI vs. referral or other sources
- Inferable current booking leakage, if estimable
Pricing Bands
One-Shot Proof-of-Concept Audit
[PLACEHOLDER] — note this is NOT to be derived from the monthly rate by fixed formula until real numbers exist. Prior directional assumption: roughly 2-3x the eventual monthly rate. Label explicitly as unvalidated.
Entry Tier (single-location)
[PLACEHOLDER] — prior directional assumption ~$500/month. Must clear the early-stage cost floor and fall within the value ceiling once both are real.
Premium Tier (multi-location / faster SLA)
[PLACEHOLDER] — prior directional assumption ~$1,000-1,500/month.
Value Ceiling Logic
State that price should stay within a percentage-of-recoverable-LTV band, prior directional assumption 20-30%, explicitly marked as theoretical and unvalidated against any real client's numbers.
Open Dependencies
List explicitly:
- Real client Layer 3 data has not yet been collected. Any local service business that completes Path to PoC Layers 1–3 with owner-provided numbers may supply the first validation set (Overcome Fitness is the current Draft Benchmark on the 1a path; Phoenix Salon + Spa remains a valid future source if economics access is obtained). No single named client is forced.
- The early-stage cost floor must be rechecked once Local Competitive Awareness overhead is accounted for.
- At least one completed proof-of-concept engagement is needed to sanity-check assumed delivery cost against actual time and effort spent.