jimmy
30 lines
4.1 KiB
Markdown
30 lines
4.1 KiB
Markdown
# Insights — Dream Mode Consolidated Learnings
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> Living, de-duplicated knowledge base. Themes, not an append log. Newest evidence strengthens or replaces existing entries.
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> Opened 2026-10-10 (first Dream Mode run).
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## 🏛️ Standing Principles (epistemics & discipline)
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- **Pre-registration is load-bearing.** For any falsification loop ("what died and why"), kill criteria + cost assumptions must be timestamped *before* the run. Post-hoc autopsies re-import survivorship bias through the writer. Schema must force the field.
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- **The critic must be a different engine than the proposer of the claim.** Hard-wiring one model (even a strong one) as permanent critic creates correlated blind spots → sycophancy collapse. Rotate roles (planner proposes, reviewer critiques — separate profiles count).
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- **Optimize for honest falsification, not PnL.** Success metric = cleanly-falsified claims per week at bounded cost. PnL is a rare lagging output; chasing it un-disciplines the only durable asset.
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- **Measurement integrity gates the experiment.** If the instrument is broken (clock skew, unmeasured latency), the run is void — fix the instrument *before* running. Refuse to start a clock that would void every result.
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- **The durable asset is failures-with-autopsies**, not strategies. Wins are published (survivorship bias + marketing); a fee-adjusted record of what died and why is scarce and never has to be re-learned.
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- **Honest-gap ledger.** Every build report names what's wired, what's offline-only, what remains. Never claim live behavior that hasn't run.
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- **Name which cost/branch you're invoking before concluding.** E.g. a *taker* fee says nothing about a *maker* edge's viability.
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- **A known root cause with a cheap fix should not survive the day it was found** — diagnose → propose → ask in the same turn; apply on approval.
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## 🛠️ Technical Notes
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- **Kalshi fees (verified 2026-10-10):** taker = `round_up(0.07·C·P·(1−P))`, charged only when you take. **Maker fee = 0 on ~12,500 of 12,699 series** (only ~129 series tax resting orders, quarter rate; cancelling free; 14 niche series fee-free). Polymarket **US** is a separate, thinner, full-KYC venue with contested CA status; Kalshi CA is clean (CFTC DCM).
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- **Headless (`-q`/`--oneshot`) approval gate:** profiles with `approvals.mode` unset default to `manual` → no user → dangerous-pattern commands (`python -c`, `execute_code`, `rm -r`, `kill -9`, heredocs) time out to `BLOCKED`. The `execute_code` fallback is gated too → retry loop that burns context. Fix: `approvals.mode: smart` (+ `command_allowlist` for scoped safe patterns) + tool-loop guardrails (`hard_stop_after: 5`). Cron-safe only after allowlist/config applied.
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- **Cron/unattended tool limits:** `python -c`, `execute_code`, and heredoc script execution are blocked in unattended (-q) runs unless allowlisted; `write_file` refuses overwrite without a prior read (pagination paradox); `terminal` foreground cap 600s (else promoted to tracked background).
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- **killcorpus** (`C:\Users\fight\Projects\killcorpus`): paper-only. Spec `KXBTCD-lag-vs-spot` v1.1.1 (taker primary; maker secondary pending fill model). Harness `harness/paper_trader_instrumented.py` — instrumented (book_read_ts, ntp_offset_ms, spot_age_ms, realized_slippage), variance gate σ²=0.25, latency gates 1000/500/250 ms, fixed N=967 post-registration. Offline selftest green; live feed→fill→settlement path **not yet wired**. Gitea `Tony_tech/killcorpus` push **held**. Reference (read-only, do not edit): `polyterm/paper_trader.py`.
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- **Agent-loop roles:** planner=Proposer, reviewer=Critic, builder=Executor, jimmy=Recorder.
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## 🧵 Open Threads
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- Trace-fix (builder/reviewer `approvals.mode: smart` + guardrails + timeout 300) written, unapplied — awaiting Tony's approval. See [[../04_projects/trace-review-bot/2026-10-10-trace-analysis-and-fix]].
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- killcorpus deliberate eval **on hold**: `w32tm` unsynchronized, skew −284 ms vs 250 ms gate. Prereqs: clock fix (UAC, at PC), one live settlement observed, durable runner.
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- Dream Mode live as of 2026-10-10 (skill + `skill_review.py` + 2 AM cron + `dream/`). First note = this run.
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