jimmy
119 lines
12 KiB
Markdown
119 lines
12 KiB
Markdown
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## 20261011-000017 session 20261010_154339_ceb19ec0
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**user:** Role fix first.
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jimmy = Recorder / coordinator only.
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planner = Proposer.
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reviewer = Critic.
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builder = Executor.
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jimmy does not write the spec and does not propose the claim. That removes the self-authorship problem on the same claim. planner writes the spec; reviewer kills or passes it independently; jimmy only records the finished autopsy and advances the queue.
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Claim confirmation
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The KXBTCD lag-vs-spot claim is acceptable as the first concrete claim. It matches the relative-value (taker) primary, has a closed-form fee, an existing harness, and clear kill criteria. The original seeded basket claim can sit in the queue behind it or be treated as a later variant. Use this one now.
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The measurement-artifact flag is material: if the order-book read is as stale as the Kalshi update, the measured edge is your own latency. That belongs in the pre-registered kill criteria (or as an explicit measurement the Executor must log). reviewer should treat an unmeasured book-vs-spot timestamp delta as a reason to kill or park until it is instrumented.
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Go-ahead
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• planner produces specs/KXBTCD-lag-vs-spot.spec.yaml from the spec you wrote.
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• reviewer performs the independent kill/pass on that spec only.
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• No file writes or commits until you explicitly approve the spec + reviewer decision.
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• jimmy records only after that approval.
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That keeps the engines separate and the loop disciplined. Paste the spec + reviewer output here when ready and I will do the higher-reasoning pass on the pair.
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**assistant:** Loop ran. Planner → spec; Reviewer → independent verdict. **Nothing committed** — both artifacts sit in scratch, no repo file created, per your no-writes-until-approval rule.
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**Produced by `planner` (profile), spec id `KXBTCD-lag-vs-spot`:**
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Claim: *In Kalshi KXBTCD hourly above/below markets, final 2–50 min before strike close, a YES/NO taker with post-fee model edge ≥ 0.04 has positive mean realized PnL/contract after fees, over ≥300 settled markets sampled walk-forward.*
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Pre-registered kill criteria:
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- **K1** mean post-fee PnL/contract ≤ 0 → killed
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- **K2** model Brier ≥ market-mid Brier → killed
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- **K3** cost-stress (fee×1.5, +1 tick, jointly) flips edge negative → killed
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- **K4** <300 settled post-registration markets → inconclusive, **not kept**
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- **K5** edge confined to one sigma-tercile → parked, not kept
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- Falsifying assumption: spot is fresh and the book lags; **unmeasured book-vs-spot timestamp delta → KILL/PARK** (measurement artifact).
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- Closed enums for outcome + cause-of-death; BDD acceptance criteria for pass/kill/inconclusive.
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**Produced by `reviewer` (independent profile), VERDICT: KILL-OR-PARK**
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Required changes (its words, condensed):
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1. **Outcome enum not closed** — "parked" is used as a first-class outcome (K5, falsifying assumption, kill scenario) but has no enum member. Add it or remap every "parked" explicitly.
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2. **No statistical decisiveness floor on K1** — near-even $1 binaries at N=300 give SE(mean)≈0.029, so a true 0.04 edge is t≈1.3; a luck
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## 20261011-000205 session 20261010_154339_ceb19ec0
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**user:** Higher-reasoning pass: the reviewer’s KILL-OR-PARK is correct. Do not keep the claim as written.
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The load-bearing objections are #2 and #4. They attack whether a pass would mean anything.
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• Statistical decisiveness (#2). At N=300 on near-even $1 binaries the standard error of the mean is roughly 0.029. A true 0.04 edge is only about t=1.3. A lucky positive sample can clear “mean > 0” without the edge being real. Requiring a one-sided confidence interval lower bound > 0 (or a pre-specified minimum margin plus a power calculation that shows N is adequate) is the minimum fix. Without it the test cannot distinguish edge from noise, so a pass is not evidence.
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• Window purity (#4). Any evaluation that can include pre-registration entries contaminates the out-of-sample count. Every kill-capable metric must be computed strictly on markets entered after the pre-registration timestamp. The “whichever comes first” language has to go.
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The other points are real but secondary:
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• #1 (closed outcome enum) and #5 (instrumented slippage vs flat tick, pre-specified per-tercile test) are spec bugs. Fix them so the record is unambiguous.
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• #3 (gate the measured latency) is the measurement-artifact risk made operational. A max tolerated book-vs-spot delta, how server time is established, and “large measured delta = measurement_artifact” should be in the spec. Until that is instrumented the falsifying assumption remains live.
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Independence note. Separate profiles satisfy the process rule we set. The
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**assistant:** **Path 1 — and one correction to Path 2 that matters more than the choice.**
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The claim is **untested, not dead.** #2 and #4 are *defects in the draft spec*; nothing has been run against the KXBTCD edge. Path 2 as written files an autopsy with cause = "statistical decisiveness + OOS window contamination." But that's a *documentation* defect, not a cause of death from evidence. Filing it would write a false death into the corpus — a claim recorded as dead that was never tested. That's the survivorship-bias back door this whole project exists to close. A corpus that lies about *why* something died is worse than no corpus.
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So:
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- **Path 1 (my pick):** planner closes #2 (CI lower bound or powered N + power calc) and #4 (strict post-registration window only), plus the spec bugs #1/#3/#5; reviewer re-reviews the revised spec only. Clean, and it actually exercises the harness under a valid test.
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- **Path 2, corrected:** if you'd rather drop this claim and move on, do it as a **withdrawal** (status: never-tested), *not* an autopsy. Same speed, honest record. The claim isn't dead — it was never run.
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Either way, no death gets recorded for a claim that was never executed. The only version I'd refuse is "file it as a death."
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Say **1** and I'll dispatch planner for the revision now, then reviewer on the revised spec. Say **2** and I'll have the recorder file a withdrawal (still no repo write until you approve the wording).
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## 20261011-000707 session 20261010_154339_ceb19ec0
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**user:** Correction accepted.
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The claim is untested. #2 and #4 are defects in the draft spec, not evidence of death. Filing an autopsy that records a cause of death for a claim that was never executed would put a false death in the corpus. That is worse than no record.
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Path 2, if used, is a withdrawal (status: never-tested), not an autopsy.
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Path 1 confirmed.
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planner revises the spec to close:
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• #2 — one-sided CI lower bound > 0, or powered N plus an explicit power calculation
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• #4 — every kill-capable evaluation restricted to the strictly post-registration OOS window
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• plus the spec bugs #1, #3, and #5
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reviewer re-reviews only the revised spec.
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No repo writes and no autopsy until you approve the revised spec + reviewer verdict.
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Dispatch planner for the revision. Bring the revised spec and the reviewer’s second verdict here for the higher-reasoning pass.
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**assistant:** Round 2 done. Both artifacts below; **still uncommitted.**
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**Spec v1.1.0 (`planner`)** — all five prior changes materially addressed:
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- **#2** → `power_analysis` block, `required_N = 967` (N = (1.645+0.842)²·0.25/0.04²). K1 now requires **one-sided 95% lower bound > 0**, and states bare "mean > 0 is NOT sufficient."
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- **#4** → "whichever comes first" removed; every kill-capable metric (K1/K2/K3/K5) bounded **strictly to entries after the registration timestamp**; K1 stops exactly at N=967 (fixed-N OOS).
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- **#1** → `outcome_enum` now `{kept, killed, parked, inconclusive}` + `parked_semantics`.
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- **#3** → `latency_gating`: max book-vs-spot delta 1000 ms, spot-freshness 500 ms, max NTP skew 250 ms, per-venue server time cross-checked vs local NTP; **measured-but-exceeding delta → `measurement_artifact` (KILL)**.
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- **#5** → slippage now **instrumented** (per-fill realized fill-vs-mid, no flat tick), K3 stresses at 1.5×; K5 gets a Bonferroni-adjusted (α/3, z≈2.128) per-tercile test with an explicit borderline rule.
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**Reviewer second verdict: KILL-OR-PARK — all five CLOSED, one new defect.**
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- New issue #1: K1 carries an **undefined discretionary kill clause** — *"OR realized point estimate inconsistent with assumed_effect_size 0.04"* — no numeric bound, no tolerance. It reintroduces researcher discretion into the one gate that must be automatic, and it's **redundant** with the LB>0 test. Fix: define it numerically or delete it.
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- Minor (non-fatal): at ~322 markets/tercile with z
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## 20261011-005120 session 20261010_154339_ceb19ec0
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**user:** Higher-reasoning pass: delete the discretionary clause, then the spec is a valid test.
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The new issue is real and load-bearing for process integrity. The clause “OR realized point estimate inconsistent with assumed_effect_size 0.04” has no numeric bound. It reintroduces researcher discretion into the one gate that must be automatic, and it is redundant with the one-sided lower-bound > 0 requirement. Delete it. Do not replace it with a new tolerance.
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The minor note on K5 is correctly flagged. At ~322 markets per tercile with the Bonferroni adjustment, edge_present(tercile) will almost never fire for a true 0.04 edge. Parking on regime dependence is near-inert. That is acceptable provided the borderline rule routes those cases to K1/K2 and the record does not treat “parked” as a live expected outcome.
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The residual risk (paper walk-the-book fills ≠ live-realizable fills; two correlated stale sources can both lag inside the 1000/500 ms gates) remains the weakest link. It does not invalidate the spec as a paper test. It does mean a later keep decision, if one ever occurs, still requires a live-fill measurement before any capital discussion.
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Decision
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Micro-revise: planner strikes the discretionary clause from K1. Reviewer re-reviews only that change.
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A PASS on the revised spec means only that the test is valid and pre-registered. It does not mean the KXBTCD edge exists. The harness run decides that.
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No repo write until the revised spec and the reviewer’s third verdict are both here
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**assistant:** **Round 3 — PASS.** Final pair below; still nothing written or committed.
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**Spec v1.1.1 (`planner`)** — diff vs v1.1.0 is exactly two lines: `version: 1.1.1`, and K1's threshold now reads *only* `"one-sided 95% lower bound <= 0 (cannot establish positive edge above noise)"`. Verified: zero occurrences of the discretionary clause, no replacement tolerance added, `power_analysis.assumed_effect_size: 0.04` correctly retained.
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**Reviewer third verdict: PASS**
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- CLAUSE_REMOVED: yes. DANGLING_REFS: none. OTHER_REGRESSIONS: none.
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- All five v1.1.0 closures intact (required_N=967 + power calc; LB>0; strict post-registration OOS; closed enum + parked_semantics; latency gating with measured-but-exceeding → `measurement_artifact`; instrumented realized slippage; Bonferroni per-tercile K5). "K1's gate is now purely automatic."
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- Residual risk (its words): K1 now rests entirely on the one-sided LB at exactly N=967, where the spec's own derivation puts **expected LB ≈ 0.0135 — knife-edge above zero**. It presumes σ²≈0.25; if realized per-market variance runs higher (volatile regimes), N=967 **under-powers K1** and a genuine edge can fail on the variance model — a false KILL or a near-tie a viable edge can't clear.
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**Two coordinator notes before you approve:**
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1. **The knife-edge must be measured, not assumed.** The 0.0135 margin rides on σ²=0.25. The run has to log **realized per-market variance** from the start, so if it exceeds the basis we revise N **pre-registered, before** the clo
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