vault-sync: 2026-10-17 12:01 (jimmy)

2026-10-17 12:01:19 -07:00
parent 91cd44a331
commit 1bb471c8de
29 changed files with 990 additions and 245 deletions
@@ -12,7 +12,7 @@ Two distinct halves, both high-agency "build the machine" work rather than task
 2. Built **Dream Mode** itself: the `memory-and-reflection` skill, `skill_review.py`, the `dream/` vault dir, and the 2 AM cron job — the very job producing this note.

 **Evening (≈15:43–23:09 PT)** — the strategic session:
-3. Turned "autopsy a corpus of dead strategies" into a real project (**killcorpus**): pre-registered paper-testing loop, locked schema, locked market scope, locked agent roles.
+3. Turned "autopsy a corpus of dead strategies" into a real project: pre-registered paper-testing loop, locked schema, locked market scope, locked agent roles.
 4. Scaffolded + committed the spec and an instrumented harness; held every external action; dispatched the builder for the live path.
 5. Hit a hard external gate: system clock skew (−284 ms vs 250 ms gate) → deliberately **held the evaluation run**.

@@ -25,7 +25,6 @@ Theme of the day: *discipline over throughput* — pre-registration before runs,
 - **Autopsy-corpus seed** (`@session:jimmy/20261010_154339_ceb19ec0`, 15:47 PT). Tony pasted a Grok-generated idea: the durable asset is failures-with-autopsies, not strategies. Agreed with the spine; **added the load-bearing field**: pre-registration — kill criteria and cost assumptions timestamped *before* the run, else the corpus re-imports survivorship bias.
 - **Market-scope lock** (16:06 PT). Grok pushed a locked scope (thin Kalshi/Polymarket books, niche event contracts, illiquid micro-caps). Corrected with live-checked facts: **Kalshi taker fee** = `round_up(0.07·C·P·(1−P))`, **maker fee = 0 on ~12,500 of 12,699 series**. Verdict: split maker vs relative-value into two edges; relative-value (taker, closed-form cost) is primary/high-throughput, maker secondary (fill-probability is the research problem). Polymarket US is a separate, thinner, KYC-gated venue with contested CA status; Kalshi CA is clean.
 - **Grok-as-critic correction** (16:42 PT). Flagged the structural flaw: Grok generated the scope, so making it the adversarial critic yields correlated blind spots. Rule: *the critic must be a different engine than whoever proposed the claim.* Also caught Grok's fee line as the **taker** fee silently doing the work of killing the maker branch. Hardened the success metric: **cleanly-falsified claims per week at bounded cost**, PnL a rare lagging output.
- **killcorpus build** (≈16:55–17:20 PT). Repo `C:\Users\fight\Projects\killcorpus` scaffolded; spec `KXBTCD-lag-vs-spot` v1.1.1 committed; `harness/paper_trader_instrumented.py` (29 KB, stdlib, taker-only, measured slippage, variance gate σ²=0.25, latency gates 1000/500/250 ms) selftest green. Independently verified by jimmy (not taken on the builder's word). Gitea push **held**; builder dispatched for the live feed→fill→settlement path with the clock explicitly locked (no `REG_TS`).
 - **Clock gate → hold the eval** (23:09 PT, session end). Allowlist applied to all four loop profiles (planner/reviewer/builder/jimmy); headless builder selftest proven end-to-end (exit 0). Then: `w32tm` reports `Leap Indicator: 3 (not synchronized)`, skew **−284 ms** across three NTP sources vs the 250 ms gate. Recommendation: **hold the deliberate eval** — any run now voids every candidate as `measurement_artifact`. Prereqs before eval: clock fix (needs Tony at the PC, UAC), one live settlement observed, a durable runner.

 ## 📊 Quality Assessment
@@ -69,7 +68,6 @@ Theme of the day: *discipline over throughput* — pre-registration before runs,

 ## 📂 Memory Candidates

- **killcorpus** is a real, active project: `C:\Users\fight\Projects\killcorpus`, paper-only, spec `KXBTCD-lag-vs-spot` v1.1.1, instrumented harness (`harness/paper_trader_instrumented.py`), Gitea `Tony_tech/killcorpus` (push held). Sibling: `polyterm/paper_trader.py` (read-only reference, live-forward since Oct 9).
 - **Dream Mode is live** as of Oct 10: skill `memory-and-reflection`, script `scripts/skill_review.py`, cron `Dream Mode (nightly reflection)` @ 2 AM, vault `Obsidian Vault/dream/`. (Already implicit in this job; the durable fact is that it exists and where its pieces live.)
 - **Standing preference confirmed:** Tony runs a *multi-profile agent loop* — planner=Proposer, reviewer=Critic, builder=Executor, jimmy=Recorder — and keeps `approvals.mode` unset by default (headless-safe only after allowlist/fix). Config changes require his explicit approval.
 - **Durable principle Tony endorsed:** the durable asset is a corpus of honest *failures with autopsies*, and the success metric is cleanly-falsified claims per week at bounded cost — not PnL. (Belongs more in `insights.md` than in always-on memory.)
@@ -77,8 +75,6 @@ Theme of the day: *discipline over throughput* — pre-registration before runs,
 ## ❓ Open Questions

 - **Apply the trace-fix now?** The builder/reviewer approval-gate fix (Fix A `approvals.mode: smart` + Fix B guardrails + Fix C timeout 300) is written but unapplied. It blocked sessions all day. → "Apply the builder/reviewer config fixes?" (needs his approval; config edits).
- **Clock fix:** the deliberate killcorpus eval is blocked on `w32tm` skew (−284 ms vs 250 ms gate). Needs Tony at the PC for the UAC elevation to run `w32tm-fix.bat`.
- **Gitea push for killcorpus:** still held — push when he wants the remote copy.
 - **Merge skills?** `test-driven-development` ↔ `test-driven-development` (similarity 1.0 — a same-name duplicate across two directories); `writing-for-agents` ↔ `writing-fragments` (0.91).
  - "Merge/remove the duplicate `test-driven-development`? — reply yes and I'll do it"
  - "Merge `writing-fragments` into `writing-for-agents`? — reply yes and I'll do it"
@@ -87,7 +83,6 @@ Theme of the day: *discipline over throughput* — pre-registration before runs,

 - **Dream Mode inaugural run** — validate the chunk-write discipline held (it did; this note was written in 3 small pieces). Next: confirm the 2 AM job reliably finds the day's sessions without manual reconciliation.
 - **Close the diagnosis loop:** add a step so that a written root-cause fix is either applied same-day or explicitly surfaced as the top open question — never silently filed.
- **Durable runner** for killcorpus: the N=967 accrual over days–weeks needs a process that survives sessions (cron / `terminal(background=true, persist_on_release=true)`), not a foreground run.
 - **Live-settlement proof:** no smoke has yet produced a *settled* trade (all open/reset). Prove the settle path before trusting a multi-day clock.

 ## 🧰 Skill Review